CHICKENPIE.There are two types of people in this world. Those who fix a problem, and those who assure you they know someone who will eventually speak to someone who might mention it.
We called the second type.
President Marcos and President Trump had a phone call. It was warm. It was important. Trump is "very supportive." He will "take up our concerns" with President Xi at their next meeting — which is September. We are writing this in July. If you're reading this in July, that means we have approximately eight weeks floating on the confidence that a man who once put his name on a steak company will diplomatically finesse the South China Sea situation on our behalf.
In the meantime: Ayungin Shoal. Soldiers. China Coast Guard. Same story, different day, no meeting on the calendar.
Here is the total product of that phone call: a Palace statement. The statement says Trump was "sympathetic." That word — sympathetic — is doing a lot of work there. Sympathy is what you bring to a wake. Ayungin Shoal is not a wake. It's Philippine territory with a Chinese Coast Guard ship in it, and the solution so far is to be very sorry about the whole thing while a bigger country files the complaint to an even bigger country during their September calendar slot.
The diplomatic pipeline is actually quite elegant. Marcos briefs Rubio on the shoal. Rubio flies to Manila, nods gravely, flies home. Marcos calls Trump. Trump says he'll bring it up with Xi at the next summit. Xi schedules the summit. The summit is in September. By September, there will be a new incident to discuss at the next summit. The pipeline never empties. It just moves the water around.
This is the international relations version of "I'll mention it to my manager." You've been dealing with a problem for three years. You escalate to the biggest person you know. He says he'll bring it up at his next one-on-one. You leave feeling strangely satisfied. Then you look at Ayungin on Google Maps.
Don't get us wrong: bilateral relationships are complicated, and Trump's engagement with Asia-Pacific is better than the alternative. The call was probably necessary. But "I'll raise it" is the floor of diplomatic action, not the ceiling, and we have been raising this particular issue since 2013. Thirteen years of concerns. A pipeline's worth of sympathetic nods and forwarded agendas.
September. Mark your calendars. In September, the concern will be raised. In September, we will see what Xi says. In September, we will file another diplomatic note about whatever happened in August.
It's July.
