CHICKENPIE.The House Committee on Justice voted to unseal the impeachment case. Same day, same room, same people: voted not to open the tax records.
We are a country that is genuinely, professionally comfortable with irony.
The charges are not small: abuse of public funds, betrayal of public trust, culpable violation of the Constitution. The chamber has hosted 37 impeachment attempts in Philippine history. Two ended in conviction. This is a room that knows how to look busy.
Sara Duterte enters this trial rated 56% favorable to the public. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is at 34% and falling. The gap is 22 points and widening. By every number available, she is winning a fight she is supposed to be losing. The math is not subtle. The math, however, has never been the point in Philippine politics.
Here is what is actually happening. Two hundred fifteen lawmakers need to vote yes. The evidence is in a box. The box is sealed. The box will remain sealed — procedurally, legally, firmly. The trial will proceed using the evidence that isn't in the box. What isn't in the box is presumably fine. What is in the box is presumably the reason everyone is here. We will not look at it.
The Filipino citizen watching this has a well-developed vocabulary for this kind of theater. Exhibit A is entered. Exhibit A is sealed. Exhibit A is submitted. The submission of Exhibit A is noted. Exhibit A is not opened. The court thanks the gallery for their patience. We declare a decision.
What this moment clarifies — not illustrates, not raises questions about, clarifies — is the arithmetic. Sara is being tried by lawmakers whose boss polls 20 points below her. This is not a proceeding. It is a gamble. They are betting 215 votes beat a 56% approval rating.
The box is sealed.
Next year, someone will run on finally opening it. They will win by 20 points. The box will remain sealed. Someone will explain why it needs to remain sealed. The explanation will be entered into the record. The record will be sealed.
